Much like the rabbit in Aesop’s fable, China is racing ahead at full speed. Its economy has paced itself at an average 10% GDP growth for nearly 30 years, during which foreign investment, real estate and infrastructure have surpassed all expectations for sustaining their acceleration. All charts curve up. The hare seems poised to win.
Yet in many fields, China – like the methodical, determined turtle – slowly marches along. After a two-year pause, the CNY exchange rate again creeps upwards; the nation’s fingers grasp further over other lands in search of long-term secured natural resources; and worldwide the government pursues economic ties, staving off political ones with its steadily growing cash reserves. The tortoise is set endure.
Hare skeptics say it may be running low on energy. China’s one-child population will age and increasingly enter retirement over the next few decades, leaving an overreaching nation understaffed.
Tortoise skeptics cite the hurdles it has yet to jump. Nations around the world grow louder and more aggressive in their protests: they resist China’s increasing presence in everything from petroleum to movie production.
Although a finish line awaits somewhere beyond the horizon, the outcome is already known. By embodying both contestants, China has assured its own victory.
This leaves organizations working in China with just one business decision: whose back to ride.
